Pound to Australian Dollar Rate's Week Ahead: Stay Constructive


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There's definitely a more constructive feel to the pound's setup against the Australian dollar following two consecutive weekly advances.

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) lifted from the lows to be found at a hard technical support line at 2.0249 to reach 2.0851 last week, its highest level since August.

That gain has since been pared, with the GBP/AUD falling to 2.0674 on Monday, thanks mainly to a strong rebound in global sentiment that we saw in the closing hours of Friday's trading session.



The mood improves a little more on Monday, thanks to weekend comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that made it clear he is not keen on another 100% increase in import tariffs on Chinese goods, something he had threatened to do just days earlier.

Although improving sentiment does bolster the Aussie dollar, the comeback is not significant enough to pressure the daily GBP/AUD to a meaningful extent. For sure, there will be an element of wait-and-see nervousness ahead of the Xi-Trump summit in South Korea, due at the end of the month.

"AUD may go on struggling as long as China is locked in dispute with the US and facing chronically weak domestic demand," says Kit Juckes, Chief FX Strategist at Société Générale.

The pair has risen above the 100-day exponential moving average, in a sign that momentum has swung firmly in Sterling's favour of late.

This leaves us constructive, and a retest of what looks to be a decent area of resistance at 2.0754 could be on the cards in the coming days. A move above here opens the door to 2.10 again at some point in the ensuing weeks.


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