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The consensus amongst investment banks is that there's about 200 pips of decline ahead in the coming weeks.
Pound Sterling Live's poll of investment bank forecasts for the second quarter is out, providing us with the data required to establish a highly accurate consensus forecast for GBP/AUD.
The current consensus estimate shows there's about 200 pips worth of losses due in the weeks leading to the mid-year point. However, downside risks are notable with one investment bank expecting losses to extend as far as 1.77.
The data provides rational anchor points for those with GBP/AUD payments to base their upcoming decisions on. The exact figures are available in the summary document, made available by our partners at Horizon Currency on request.
The Australian dollar is the second-best performing major currency of 2026 and the overarching theme we're getting is that it's too soon to call an end to that outperformance.
"The relatively hawkish position of the RBA is keeping the AUD well supported," says Rabobank's senior FX strategist, Jane Foley, in a note out midweek.
Rabobank forecasts the GBP/AUD exchange rate at 1.83 in nine months, a level that is well below the consensus estimate for that time.
In fact, most institutions think that by H2, AUD outperformance will start to fade and GBP can begin to make a meaningful comeback. For instance, Commonwealth Bank of Australia says it still expects AUD to ease through much of this year because of weakening domestic fundamentals and a softening Chinese economy.
For a look at the consensus estimates and a selection of investment bank forecasts, please request your copy from our partners at Horizon Currency, here.