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The investment bank forecast survey for Q4 is ready.
Our poll of over 30 institutional analysts shows a downgrade in the key forecast points for the pound to euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) over the next 12 months.
Both the median and mean projections for all timeframes - 3 months, 6m, 9m and 12m - were adjusted lower in the fourth-quarter survey period.
A consensus forecast is often considered better than a single forecast because it reduces the influence of individual bias and random error. It provides a credible benchmark for those with payment requirements in the coming weeks and months.
The results are available on request, here.
The fourth-quarter survey comes amidst a steady selloff in GBP/EUR, from the year's opening level at 1.2080 to 1.1450 at the time of writing.
Despite a downgrade, the median and mean forecasts reveal a relatively flat profile for the GBP/EUR exchange rate over the next 12 months, suggesting that investment banks are not positioning for a major selloff from here.
Above: GBP/EUR in 2025.
Our survey captures the most accurate forecasters from the previous editions, and the top three-month forecasts made in June were from Desjardins Bank, OCBC and JP Morgan.
The predictions of these three top forecasters are available in the latest edition, as are those of some of the most important institutional names, such as Goldman Sachs and Barclays.
The survey also shows the upper-bound point targets, provided by the more bullish investment banks, have dropped again, but the lower-bound is relatively unchanged on the mid-year forecast, coming in just below 1.10.
Although the median is relatively flat, if the more bearish forecasts are proven correct, and the steady decline already seen during 2025, then a significant slide in GBP/EUR awaits over the coming months.
? About the Q4 Forecast Survey
The Q4 Pound Sterling Live Forecast Survey compiles GBP exchange rate projections from leading investment banks.
Conducted in October, it includes median, mean, high, and low forecasts for GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, and other major pairs across four time horizons: Year-end 2025, March 2026, June 2026, and September 2026.
The survey helps businesses and currency decision-makers benchmark their planning against aggregated institutional insight.