New Zealand Dollar's Domestic Tail Winds


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A rare domestic tailwind blows for the New Zealand Dollar.

The Kiwi hasn't had a stellar year, and that's largely because the domestic economic backdrop remains resolutely dreary.

So it's welcome news for those looking for a stronger NZD when we receive news of a business confidence bounce.

The ANZ Business Confidence survey advanced for a fourth month in five in October with a 8.5 point monthly gain.

"Green shoots are emerging, particularly for interest-rate sensitive sectors such as retail and construction. The question is, will firms trust them to thrive and not to wither, as they did earlier this year? The pieces are in place for a cyclical recovery," says Sharon Zollner, Chief Economist at ANZ.

This is the second largest monthly advance in more than a year and it looks as though those Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate cuts are helping.

"In the wake of the aggressive 50bps rate cut on 8 October, overall confidence has reached levels last witnessed in February," notes CIBC Capital Markets.

"Within the series we would note that inflation expectations ticked up to 2.8%, we have not witnessed a higher reading in 12 months," adds CIBC.



The market responded by lowering its expectations for further RBNZ interest rate cuts, which mechanically bolsters short-term bond yields "providing a modicum of NZD support in the process," says CIBC.

To be sure, that "modicum" of support relates to NZD/USD specifically, and it's on the crosses where we are seeing more concerted NZD strength.

The GBP/NZD exchange rate has fallen for nine days in succession, from 2.3522 to 2.29. EUR/NZD falls from 2.0485 to 2.0160.


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