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NZD to stay weak despite U.S. dollar softness, with sharper declines expected against the euro.
The New Zealand dollar is expected to remain under pressure in the coming months, despite general softness in the U.S. dollar, according to Volkmar Baur, FX analyst at Commerzbank.
While near-term movements may be muted against the USD, the NZD is forecast to weaken more significantly against the euro, reflecting a mix of domestic and global challenges.
Weak business sentiment, rising inflationary pressures, and a softening labour market are weighing on the currency.
Although consumer confidence is recovering, it remains well below pre-pandemic levels. Structural issues such as low productivity growth and falling export demand—particularly from China—further limit the NZD’s upside.
With additional interest rate cuts expected from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and dairy export risks looming, the outlook for the Kiwi remains firmly tilted to the downside.
Key pointers from Baur include:
- NZD to stay weak despite U.S. dollar softness, with sharper declines expected against the euro.
- NZD/USD seen at 0.57 through end-2025, while EUR/NZD expected to rise to 2.02 by late 2026.
- Business sentiment deteriorating in key NZ sectors due to global tariff tensions.
- Consumer confidence recovering, but still far below pre-pandemic levels.
- Inflation pressures re-emerging, with food prices driving monthly price increases.
- RBNZ expected to cut rates twice more to 3.0%, then pause for the rest of 2025.
- Labour market showing cracks, with unemployment up to 5.1% and slowing wage growth.
- Structural drag from low productivity and weak Chinese demand hurting growth outlook.
- Dairy export risks rising, with falling milk prices threatening NZ’s terms of trade.
- NZD weakness likely to persist, especially if global growth concerns and trade headwinds remain.