Pound-to-Canadian Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: Melting Lower Again


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The pound to Canadian dollar rate (GBP/CAD) sees a more subdued technical setup this week, in which the Canadian employment report will be the data highlight.

GBP/CAD peaked at 1.8625 on Wednesday before dropping back to 1.85 in the wake of Friday's impressive domestic GDP data.

Canada's economy grew 2.6% y/y on an annualised basis, smashing expectations for a more pedestrian 0.5% growth.

The data put to bed any residual hopes of further interest rate cuts at the Bank of Canada, boosting Canadian bond yields and the Loonie.

The net result is a more consolidative setup in GBP/CAD for the week ahead.

To the downside is the solid support zone of 1.8326-1.85, which held the pair for much of November. This simply tells us that this is an area the pair is most comfortable in the prevailing macroeconomic backdrop.

It also tells us that its magnetism is likely to hold GBP/CAD in the coming days and weeks, leaving us looking for a potential melt down into this zone over the coming week.



Last week's GDP data came in on the stronger side and is entirely consistent with CAD's near-term strength.

Growth was driven by strong crude oil exports and government investment, but domestic private activity remained quite weak.

However, business investment was flat, consumer spending declined, and imports fell.

"Despite the positive headline surprise, momentum looks soft into Q4," says a note from BCA Research covering the outcome.

"Surface stabilisation masks ongoing private-sector fragility. Sentiment remains subdued among both consumers and businesses as trade uncertainty stays elevated," it adds.

The implication, according to BCA, an independent provider of research, is that the Bank of Canada might yet find itself cutting interest rates again before too long.

This, if born out, would weigh on CAD and keep GBP/CAD supported, potentially pushing the pair back to the top of the 2025 range at 1.88.

"Despite the BoC signalling a pause and a shift to a wait-and-see stance last month, muted inflation pressures and persistent labour softness suggest downside risks for the overnight rate and GoC yields," says BCA.

With the economy in mind, the main event for the coming week is Canadian labour market data, up for release on Friday.

Here, the consensus looks for a sharp paring of recent employment gains, with a -7.6K figure expected, down from 66.6K in October.

The unemployment rate is anticipated to tick higher to 7.0% from 6.9%.

Any material undershoot in this data would underpin suspicions that the recent GDP numbers over exaggerated the economy's resilience, which would reboot bets for another Bank of Canada rate cut.

In this case, GBP/CAD could enter the weekend with a decent gain.


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